The Tempest before the Calm or the Hurricane?
Since two weeks we have started to watch in Lebanon the effects of the fights in Syria, where the UN observers could only witness the terrorist attacks on everything that moves and even does not move. Sometimes, they were the ones attacked.Two weeks ago, the Lebanese army stopped the cargo ship, Lutfalla 2, transporting armaments to the Lebanese port of Tripoli, from where they would have been taken to the opposition fighters in Syria.
One week ago, an Al Qaeda agent was arrested in Lebanon in the Office of a Lebanese minister; the arrest led to armed manifestations and road blocks by Islamic fighters.
It was purported in Lebanon that the CIA was behind telling the Lebanese security forces about the ship and the Al Qaeda agent. It would have done it because of an accord between the USA and Russia to have a general understanding on the Middle East.
In the same time, optimistic news about secret talks between Iran and the USA before the meeting of the latter with the 5+1 committee about its alleged researches for building nuclear bombs.
Three days ago, two Islamic sheikhs were killed on a Lebanese army roadblock triggering armed manifestations by Islamic fighters in all Sunni Lebanese cities.
Saudi Arabia and Qatar are said to be disobeying America and wanting to pursue the fighting in Syria and Lebanon to overthrow the Assad government in Syria and take power in Lebanon by bringing back to power, Hariri’s coalition. Hariri is known to be a Saudi subject and is forced thus to obey his king’s orders. But the Hariri coalition has agreed with the Lebanese actual government to support the Lebanese security forces in bringing back security all over Lebanon.
Is it possible that these Gulf countries dare disobeying American orders, is it possible that Hariri disobeys his king’s commands or is it that the anti-Assad, anti-Iran coalition has distributed different missions to its members awaiting for the results of the talks between Iran and the 5+1 committee?
For that we can say that these fighting and manifestations are gesticulations by both camps and preparations for the coming talks to force the rivals to agree on ones’ conditions.
Will they be resulting in peace or won’t they? Will the tempest become a summer breeze or a world nuclear hurricane?
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PS: Roger AKL is a former Lebanese navy officer, former Assistant armed Forces Attaché at the Lebanese Embassy in Washington D.C., former Second in Command of the Lebanese Navy (1981- 1984) and former head of the Lebanese liaison bureau with the American forces in Lebanon (1983-1984), former chairman, CEO and director of the board of companies in the INTRA Investment group (1984-1990). Currently he is a writer in Middle Eastern affairs.